Jornal Do Brasilia - Federal Memo Warns Canada Faces Long-Term Freshwater Security Crisis

A confidential federal document obtained through an Access to Information Act request warns that Canada may not be secure in its long-term access to fresh water, despite the nation possessing a vast portion of the world’s renewable surface supply. The memo, prepared for Environment Minister Julie Dabrusin by the Canada Water Agency, outlines urgent risks posed by climate change, pollution, and population growth, while emphasizing the need for a comprehensive national water security strategy.

The 12-page document was drafted to update Dabrusin on the development of this strategy, which she identified as a "mission critical priority" in response to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s call for key portfolio objectives. The memo notes that while Canadians will require more water to support urban expansion and economic growth, it remains unclear whether the country is adequately positioned to meet these demands over the long term.

Although Canada holds 20 percent of the world’s surface fresh water, the document clarifies that only one-third of this volume is salt-free and replenished annually through precipitation. Furthermore, most of Canada’s renewable surface fresh water drains northward, away from the country’s most densely populated regions and economic centers, which are largely located within 300 kilometers of the border with the United States.

The memo highlights significant gaps in data regarding groundwater, which serves as the largest freshwater resource in the country. In some areas, groundwater aquifers remain unmapped, even though nearly one in three Canadians rely on this source for clean drinking water. Climate change is further complicating availability by altering when and where fresh water can be accessed. The document warns that some regions are already facing, or may soon face, restricted or depleting supplies, including areas within the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River basin.

Water quality presents another major challenge. In many settled areas, water is either polluted to the point of being unsuitable for human, animal, or industrial use, or it requires expensive treatment before it can be used. Data from 2021 to 2023 indicates that while water quality at 49 percent of 165 monitoring sites in southern Canadian rivers was rated as excellent or good, the remaining 51 percent was rated as fair to poor.

Efforts to restore large lake systems are underway, but protecting them from major stressors remains difficult. Complex ecosystems such as the lower Great Lakes and Lake Winnipeg continue to be classified as being in fair or poor condition. Data for northern rivers, lakes, and groundwater aquifers is limited, making it difficult to fully assess the health of these resources.

The memo attributes the stress on freshwater ecosystems across southern Canada to a combination of factors, including a rapidly changing climate, shifts in land use, population growth, pollution, overconsumption, and aging or inadequate water infrastructure. It also notes that the Arctic and the North face critical issues stemming from increased development and climate impacts on already overwhelmed infrastructure. First Nations, Métis, and Inuit communities are identified as among the most water-insecure populations in Canada.

Transboundary relations with the United States are a central concern. More than 40 percent of the border between the two nations crosses water, providing drinking water, hydroelectric power, navigation routes, recreation, irrigation, and biodiversity support for tens of millions of people on both sides. While the countries are parties to over a dozen bilateral freshwater agreements, the memo warns that new water-related disputes could emerge and become more frequent as supplies shrink and demands rise.

The document also addresses public concerns regarding the potential export of fresh water. It notes that for decades, Canadians have raised objections to the bulk export of water to the United States and beyond, with strong opposition extending to any form of diversion of lakes and rivers.

Despite these challenges, the memo suggests that actions to strengthen water security could create significant development opportunities. Long-term access to sufficient water supplies is framed as a strategic advantage in a water-stressed world. The document points out that more than half of Canada’s electricity comes from hydro power, supporting the shift to a low-carbon economy. Water storage and irrigation are described as critical for high-value crop production in the Prairies and interior British Columbia, as well as for the greenhouse sector. Major manufacturing industries, which are among the largest users of water in Canada, also depend on a secure supply, as does the growing digital economy.

Public consultation on the development of the national water security strategy took place from September 9 through October 25. The Canada Water Agency engaged directly with provincial, territorial, and Indigenous partners during this process. Portions of the memo were withheld under a provision of the Access to Information Act that allows the government to shield advice or recommendations from public release.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published on November 15, 2026.

S. Alves--JDB