Jornal Do Brasilia - Exiled Putin critic says push for peace put him in danger

"I stayed in Russia for as long as I could," the anti-war politician told AFP from a hotel in the suburbs of Paris.

"I tried, until the very last moment, not to cross any red lines, but apparently the red lines have shifted."

Nadezhdin, 63, is an unlikely rebel. Critics long described him as a token member of Russia's liberal opposition.

He knows Vladimir Putin personally, and the two repeatedly had tea together when Putin came to power a quarter of a century ago. He worked with Sergei Kiriyenko, now Putin's powerful first deputy chief of staff, and for many years took part in political propaganda shows on Russian television.

But after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, even the faintest semblance of pluralism has disappeared. Criticism of the war was outlawed, and top Kremlin critics ended up in exile, prison or dead.

Nadezhdin hoped he might be safe as long as he played by the rules. But his calls for peace and tame criticism of the "special military operation", now in its fifth year, proved too much.

Nadezhdin, known for his affable demeanour, attempted to run for president in 2024. But he was barred after he became a magnet for anti-war sentiment, with images of long lines of his supporters published around the world.

In July he learned that any further attempt to challenge the Kremlin could land him in jail. He tried to stand in tightly controlled parliamentary polls in September, but was declared a "foreign agent", a label used to stifle dissent.

"If in 2024 I could get away with criticising Putin and the war, now I can't anymore," he told AFP.

He packed his bags and left through Kazakhstan on July 22 after being summoned for questioning by investigators. He feared that authorities were preparing to launch a criminal case against him. With a history of heart disease, he figured he might not get out of jail alive.

Soon after Nadezhdin fled, Russia's only anti-war party, Yabloko, was barred from contesting the polls too.

- 'They want peace' -

Demand for change is "enormous", he said, pointing to his conversations with Russians before his campaign was cut short.

"I met with hundreds, perhaps even thousands, of young people. They say they want peace, and they all say they want a return to normal life," he said.

"I think that's why they didn't let me and Yabloko run," he added. "Putin thinks that everyone supports him and that the Russian army is about to win."

Former president Dmitry Medvedev this week called anti-war youths "morons" with "brain problems".

Russians are increasingly feeling the consequences of the fighting, as Kyiv seeks to bring the war back to Russia and cripple its economy with strikes on oil refineries and logistics infrastructure.

"Every day Ukrainian drones fly overhead and people die," Nadezhdin said. "Children die. There are problems with gasoline. The internet isn't working. Prices are rising."

"Go to the cemetery of any Russian city. You can see right away just how many men have been killed."

Assessing opposition to the war is challenging due to censorship.

According to a July survey by the Levada Center polling organisation, which is on Moscow's list of foreign agents, 62 percent of people back peace talks with Ukraine, while 28 percent are in favour of continuing the fighting.

Nadezhdin, who worked in the government in the 1990s and was also a lawmaker in parliament, said Russian elites are frustrated but too afraid to act.

"They all toe the line, and they keep telling me: 'Boris, you get it, don't you? One step in the wrong direction, and we're finished.'"

- 'Cost of victories' -

While 73-year-old Putin's popularity has taken a hit, observers say his grip on power remains firm.

Nadezhdin said further escalation could further hurt Putin's popularity.

"Over five years of war, Russian voters have come to understand very well the true cost of these supposedly great victories."

He said he had no regrets about cooperating with the authorities in the past.

"I would have made a good European politician," he said with a smile. "A politician in Europe is someone who knows how to seek compromises, find common ground, understand the public mood, and adapt to it."

Nadezhdin said diplomats from several countries had offered help, but he chose to come to France.

The father of four still does not know where he will live or how he will earn a living. His elderly parents and children remain in Russia and he dreads uprooting his family.

"I don't have a clear idea of my plans for the next few weeks or months," said Nadezhdin, a physicist by training.

"But I'll do my best to make it through until the day I can return to Russia."

J.L. de Oliveira--JDB