Jornal Do Brasilia - US shutdown poker: Which side has the winning hand?

Behind the scenes, it's not just about budgets -- it's about who's winning the blame game.

Democrats argue they have the clearer story and the more relatable message. Republicans have President Donald Trump's megaphone, but critics say their argument is tangled in technicalities.

Polling shows the public assigning blame to both parties. The most recent surveys show a plurality blaming Republicans, although Trump remains largely unscathed.

But with each missed paycheck and rising premium, the stakes get higher -- and someone is going to fold.

- The stakes -

This shutdown isn't your garden-variety gridlock -- it's already the second-longest in history and neither side looks close to backing down.

It is the first significant shutdown driven by Democrats, and only the second time the government has paused over demands to spend rather than save.

Democrats want to extend subsidies for health insurance premiums that help millions afford coverage. Republicans say reopen the government first, then maybe we'll talk.

But Republicans control the White House, House, and Senate. So when the lights go out, Democrats say their opponents cannot offload the blame.

- Democrats' play: Keep it simple -

Democrats are betting on clarity: Republicans are in charge and letting the government stall while health care costs spiral.

Ashley Kirzinger, from health research group KFF, says the message that "health care is at risk" is a widely understood pitch that lands.

"What we found is 78 percent of the public -- including majorities of Democrats, independents, Republicans and (Trump) supporters -- all think Congress should extend the premium tax credits beyond 2025," she told NPR.

Democrats also feel comfortable taking the fight to Republicans on a "tent pole issue" central to their brand, says American University politics professor Matthew Foster.

- Republicans move from red meat to procedure -

Republicans -- from Trump to Vice President JD Vance and House Speaker Mike Johnson -- kicked off the shutdown with a blunt message: "Democrats want to fund free health care for illegal immigrants."

The claim didn't hold up, as undocumented immigrants are barred from the benefits Democrats are pushing, and polling on its effectiveness is threadbare.

Republicans soon pivoted to process.

They argue they passed a "clean CR" — a temporary funding bill — and blame the gridlock on Democrats wielding the "filibuster," the 60-vote threshold required to get legislation through the 100-member Senate.

Critics say voters don't care about procedural chess, and trying to explain the filibuster is like reading the fine print on a casino voucher.

The voters that matter "aren't paying close enough attention to know this nuance," Foster says.

- Who's holding the better cards? -

Democrats are playing the emotional hand -- health care, working families, real-world consequences.

Republicans lean on process and power plays. Trump's bravado fires up the base but analysts say he risks alienating voters who just want their paychecks and prescriptions.

"Polls show that people aren't necessarily blaming him yet, but as the economy turns, as other things do, that could shift drastically," Foster says.

In the most recent polling, Reuters/Ipsos found 50 percent blame Republicans, 43 percent Democrats. Hart Research showed 52 percent blame Trump and Republicans, while 41 percent point the finger at Democrats.

Trump's approval in the Ipsos poll ticked up over the shutdown, from 40 to 42 percent.

- Playing the long game -

Democrats are looking past the gridlock, and elevating health care as a defining issue for 2026 midterm elections. As premiums rise and frustration builds, they hope voters connect the dots: Republican control equals shutdown pain.

Republicans see leverage -- a chance to reshape government and flex muscle. But the longer it drags on, analysts say, the more the shutdown looks like a risky bet.

"Both sides are blaming the other for breaking America," said Peter Loge, a professor of political communication at George Washington University.

"And if they're not careful, both sides will be right."

M. Oliveira--JDB